Global oil supplies rose by 0.6 mb/d in June, to 96 mb/d, after outages curbed OPEC and non-OPEC supplies in May, while production was 750 kb/d below as higher OPEC output only partially offset non-OPEC declines, the newly released IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) for July informs subscribers. Non-OPEC supplies are set to decline by 0.9 mb/d in 2016, to 56.5 mb/d, before rising 0.2 mb/d in 2017.
Robust European demand supported second quarter 2016 global demand growth at around 1.4 mb/d year-on-year, momentum that will be roughly matched through the year as a whole. A modest deceleration is foreseen in 2017, as growth eases to 1.3 mb/d taking average deliveries up to 97.4 mb/d.
Crude oil prices eased from an early June peak above $52/bbl, but traded within a $45-$50/bbl range. Growing uncertainty over the global economy and the related dollar strength weighed, but the downside was limited by further declines in US production and inventories.
OPEC crude output rose by 400 kb/d in June to an eight-year high of 33.21 mb/d, including newly re-joined Gabon. Saudi Arabia ramped up to a near-record rate of 10.45 mb/d and Nigerian flows partially recovered. Middle East producers sustained record pumping rates, consolidating market share and pushing OPEC’s total output 510 kb/d above one year ago.
OECD commercial inventories built by 13.5 mb in May to end the month at a record 3 074 mb. Preliminary information for June suggest that OECD stocks added a further 0.9 mb while floating storage has continued to build, reaching its highest level since 2009.
May global refinery throughput plunged by almost 1 mb/d from April, to 1.5 mb/d year-on-year, as heavy outages took their toll in many regions. This lowered the second quarter estimate for global refinery intake to 78.54 mb/d – the first year-on-year drop in three years. The forecast for third quarter throughput is more steady at 80.95 mb/d.