EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, has predicted that strong momentum in China and rebounding demand in Europe will push the global solar market to install 106 gigawatts in 2018.
According to EnergyTrend’s latest report, both China and Europe will help push the global solar market along steady growth patterns in 2018, continuing a record-breaking year of solar installations in 2017. China officially installed a total of 52.83 GW (gigawatts) worth of solar in 2017, breaking all records as well as analyst predictions. We don’t have confirmed figures for total solar in 2017, but EnergyTrend expects it will reach over 100 GW for the first time (as does most everyone). EnergyTrend is reporting, however, that in addition to China’s 52.83 GW, the United States installed 12 GW, India 9.26 GW GW, and Japan 6.09.
Looking forward, EnergyTrend expects that solar will again tip the 100 GW mark and top out at around 106 GW, again being driven by “explosive demand in China.”
EnergyTrend expects that the Chinese solar market will be driven primarily by supportive policy and production capacity expansion. Specifically, Feed-in Tariff (FiT) adjustments expected this year will constrict ground-mounted solar PV, allowing distributed solar and Poverty Alleviation projects more room to grow. Adjustments to the FiT will result in two installation rushes by June 30th and December 30th in 2018 in an effort to apply for higher subsidies.
Interestingly, EnergyTrend analyst Rhea Tsao expects that China’s solar market will actually slow a little between 2018 and 2020, but this will be offset globally by a rebound in the European market which will emerge as one of the leading drivers of growth in 2018 and beyond, helping to keep the global market around the 100 GW mark. EnergyTrend points to large-scale ground-mounted power plants expected in France, the Netherlands, and Spain by the end of this year, and the end of the EU Minimal Import Price (MIP) measurement, “making Europe a highly competitive market.”